Macron in search of a new government

France is on tenterhooks, awaiting the proverbial white smoke from the Elysee Palace that will signal the appointment of a new prime minister to succeed Gabriel Attal. While speculation runs rife, the prospect of a left-wing solution appears increasingly unlikely.

The euphoria of the Olympic Games has faded, bringing France back to its everyday challenges. While the nation showcased its impressive ability to host a world-class event and its athletes delivered outstanding performances, the country now faces the stark realities of post-Olympic life. Now, the time has come for major political decisions. After snap legislative elections and the Olympic truce, President Emmanuel Macron faces the challenge of navigating what appears to be a political impasse.

The hastily called elections resulted in a fragmented parliament, divided into three main groups: the New Popular Front of the left, the presidential camp, and the National Rally. Crucially, no group holds an absolute majority, complicating the formation of a government.
Following the results, the left claimed victory and urged Macron to choose a prime minister from its ranks. The president initially ignored this demand, calling on parties of the “Republican Front” to form a majority, excluding the far-right and far-left parties.

Not only has Macron’s appeal fallen on deaf ears, but the left-wing parties have reached an agreement to propose Lucie Castets, a senior official in the Paris city administration, as his new prime minister. After complex negotiations, the New Popular Front selected her to form a government and succeed Attal. However, Macron has chosen to disregard this proposal and continues to search within the right and center for his future PM.

The Olympic interlude has come to an end, thrusting Macron back into France’s turbulent political arena. While the Games provided a brief respite, allowing Macron to justify his silence and inaction under the guise of an Olympic truce, that sanctuary has now evaporated. The president finds himself at a critical juncture, compelled to act decisively and make challenging choices.

The president finds himself at a critical juncture, compelled to act decisively and make challenging choices.

Mustapha Tossa

Macron’s steadfast refusal to appoint a left-wing prime minister and government stems from concerns over their potential fragility. Without an absolute majority in parliament, such an administration would be perpetually vulnerable to collapse through a no-confidence vote. This precarious situation threatens to further destabilize France’s already fragile institutional balance, which is a direct consequence of the fragmented political landscape.

The post-Olympic landscape in France is dominated by one crucial question: Has Macron succeeded in his behind-the-scenes negotiations to form an elusive “Republican Front” that is capable of securing him an absolute majority and a strong prime minister backed by parliament?

This ambitious goal hinged on two major conditions. The first, and arguably less challenging, was to convince the Republicans to fully join the presidential camp. The second, more formidable task, was to persuade the Socialist Party to distance itself from Jean-Luc Melenchon’s France Unbowed. However, neither condition has been met.

The Republicans have balked at the prospect of becoming mere auxiliaries to Macron’s agenda, particularly given the president’s past efforts to weaken them by co-opting their political platform and human resources. Meanwhile, the left-wing parties, despite their internal differences, have managed to maintain a strategic alliance, effectively dashing Macron’s hopes of attracting the moderate left that is crucial to securing him an absolute majority.

The New Popular Front of the left continued its political maneuvering even during the Olympic Games. Its candidate, Castets, pressed on with her charm offensive in the face of Macron’s studied indifference. As the Olympic afterglow fades, France’s political arena crackles with tension. All eyes are now fixed on the Elysee Palace, where Macron finds himself at a critical juncture. The nation’s political elite watches with bated breath, wondering what cunning maneuver the oft-labeled “Jupiter” of French politics might conjure to navigate this treacherous impasse.

A stroke of political genius is needed to extricate the country from the looming deadlock. France finds itself caught between a left demanding the spoils of its victory, a Republican right refusing to play the role of supporting cast and a far-right patiently waiting for political chaos to ensue so it can claim the ultimate prize.

Macron may once again attempt to play on fears of the far right’s rise should he fail to appoint a prime minister capable of governing France effectively. However, it remains to be seen whether his strategy of dramatizing this threat will still resonate and maintain credibility with the electorate.

• Mustapha Tossa is a Franco-Moroccan journalist. In addition to having participated in the launch of the Arabic service of Radio France Internationale, he has notably worked for Monte Carlo Doualiya, TV5Monde and France 24.